Has The Pandemic Killed Hollywood Blockbusters?

Hollywood is known for producing blockbusters that cost many millions, or even over a hundred million, to make. These expensive films are serious investments, especially when promotion and marketing costs are taken into account too. Film studios gamble on these releases becoming big hits and generating significant amounts of profit. More often than not, ridiculously costly films do indeed make a return.

COVID-19 has caused cinemas all over the world to close and has delayed the releases of many blockbusters set to be released in 2020. As of early 2021, the future of cinema as a whole is still uncertain – no one can say for certain when exactly it will get back to how it was before the pandemic started. So with that being the case, has the pandemic managed to kill off the Hollywood blockbuster?

The State of Blockbusters During the Pandemic

In a way, the pandemic has indeed managed to bring the era of the blockbuster to a close – at least temporarily. Many of the most expensive and most eagerly anticipated films of 2020 are still to be released. The James Bond film No Time To Die was meant to come out in April 2020, though after several delays it’s now set for an October 2021. To give another example, the latest Marvel film Black Widow was meant to come out in May 2020, though it’s now set for a May 2021 release.

Studios, understandably, want to get their films released as soon as possible, but they have to be mindful of the current situation. What’s particularly challenging is that the level of restrictions people are under varies greatly from one place to the next. In some countries, cinemas are closed; in others, they’re open, but could well close at any time if case numbers increase.

What’s putting studios off releasing films right now is the fact that there’s so much uncertainty. For any kind of film to have the best chance of making a profit, cinemas everywhere have to be open. With many cinemas around the world closed, it’s understandable that studios don’t really want to take risks.

The Problems Cinemas Are Facing

Ideally, films like No Time To Die and Black Widow would get released when enough cinemas are open – and will be able to stay open – that they can generate enough profit to satisfy the studios. The key problem right now is that things are in flux and even if a movie were to get released, there’s no guarantee it will be able to make a return.

While the availability of cinemas is an important factor, so is people’s willingness to go to the cinema. Undoubtedly there are countless people who won’t think twice about going to their local cinema when it opens. They enjoyed watching films at the cinema before and are keen to go back.

However, there may well be some who normally would go, but are now hesitant to because they may feel that cinemas are unsafe. Some may also have become accustomed to watching films at home and may have decided that cinema trips aren’t worth the cost.

Another problem is social distancing. Cinemas, like all other public venues, struggle when they have to reduce capacity. For cinemas to be given their best chance at staying open (and for films to have their best chance of making a profit), there can’t be any social distancing rules in place.

Will cinemas be able to open and operate as normal? It seems very likely that they will and that they’ll be able to fill every seat – it’s a matter of when, not if.

Different Release Strategies

Tenet was the first blockbuster to be released after the initial lockdown. It had a cinema release in August/September after being delayed several times and went on to gross $363 million. This figure wasn’t enough for the film to make a return – it’s reported to have made a loss of around $100 million. Still, its gross is considered good considering the circumstances.

Other blockbusters have been released in different ways. For example, Disney’s Mulan, which was meant to come out in March 2020, ended up getting released on the streaming service Disney+, though it did have a cinema release in some countries. Warner Bros. is taking the step of releasing all its 2021 films, including Dune and The Suicide Squad, onto the HBO Max streaming service and into cinemas at the same time. This is so that people who can’t go to cinemas to watch the films can at least still see them at home online.

The End of Hollywood Blockbusters?

Tenet made a loss and it’s likely that many blockbusters released in 2021 will underperform because of the ongoing situation. It’s safe to say that studios are in a difficult position. They want and need their films to get released, but there’s every chance that a film that comes out in 2021, no matter how much it’s anticipated, will struggle to break even because of the pandemic and the restrictions people are under.

Is the Hollywood blockbuster over? Not quite – there will always be demand for big-budget films. What’s clear is that it may not be wise for films to be produced with excessively large budgets – it’s probably best for Hollywood to trim production budgets until the industry is back to normal.